The Shifting Sands of Global Power: BRICS, De-Dollarization, and the Challenges to U.S. Dominance in 2025

 

Introduction

The global order in 2025 is undergoing one of the most profound transformations in decades. Old hierarchies of power—long defined by U.S. economic and military supremacy—are now challenged by a complex web of regional conflicts, shifting alliances, and rapid technological advancements. The signs of strain are visible on multiple fronts.

The Middle East, a perennial fault line in geopolitics, is once again engulfed in conflict, with fighting in Gaza, Syria, and between Israel and Iran spilling over into global markets. In Washington, a second-term President Donald Trump has reimposed sweeping tariffs on allies and adversaries alike, reviving his “America First” trade doctrine but risking long-term strategic isolation.

Beyond these immediate crises lies a deeper structural change. The BRICS bloc—originally comprising Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa—has expanded to include Iran, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Ethiopia, and Indonesia. This enlarged coalition is advancing a coordinated push toward de-dollarization, challenging the dollar’s role as the global reserve currency and rewriting the rules of trade finance. Coupled with sanctions-resistant economies like Iran and North Korea, the bloc’s cohesion threatens to undermine the post-Cold War order.

At the same time, China’s technological rise and India’s balancing diplomacy illustrate how emerging powers are carving out independent strategic paths. This essay examines these developments in detail, assessing whether we are truly entering a multipolar era—and what this means for the United States.

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1. Turmoil in the Middle East – Conflicts and Their Ripple Effects

The Middle East remains a driver of geopolitical instability, and in 2025 its crises are more interconnected than ever.

 The Gaza War

The Israel-Hamas war, now in its third year, has exacted a devastating toll: over 50,000 Palestinian deaths, the collapse of Gaza’s basic infrastructure, and humanitarian conditions that verge on famine. International aid remains constrained by border restrictions, while Israeli military operations continue to target suspected militant infrastructure, often with significant civilian casualties.

 Syria’s Post-Assad Vacuum

In late 2024, the Assad regime collapsed under mounting internal pressure and battlefield losses. The result is a fragmented Syria, with Sunni groups controlling large swaths of territory and Shia influence—once anchored by Iranian support—now diminished. This shift not only reconfigures Syria’s internal power balance but also alters the broader sectarian dynamics of the region.

The June 2025 Iran-Israel Escalation

The most acute flashpoint of the year came in June, when Israel carried out coordinated strikes on Iran’s nuclear and missile facilities, along with critical energy infrastructure. The strikes killed senior Iranian military officials and caused significant damage to Iran’s industrial base.

Iran’s response was swift: over 300 missiles and drones were launched toward Israeli targets. Israeli defense systems, including the Iron Dome and Arrow, intercepted approximately 86% of incoming projectiles. However, the remaining strikes inflicted notable damage on strategic sites, demonstrating that Iran’s missile arsenal—already the largest in the Middle East—remains a potent deterrent.

 Global Market Impact

Oil prices surged by 15% in the immediate aftermath of the conflict, disrupting global markets. India, which relies on the Middle East for 45% of its oil imports, faced urgent concerns about energy security. Similar ripple effects were felt in Europe and East Asia, underscoring the region’s enduring leverage over the global economy.

 

2. Trump’s Tariff Policies – Short-Term Gain, Long-Term Risk

President Trump’s second term has brought the return of aggressive trade protectionism. His administration has enacted:

- A universal 10% tariff on all imports.

- Tariffs of 15–50% on key allies, including the EU, Japan, and South Korea.

- A punitive 50% tariff on India, specifically targeting its purchases of Russian oil.

- Tariffs of up to 54% on Chinese goods, temporarily reduced to 30% during brief truces.

 Impact on Allies and Partners

These policies have strained relations even with close allies. The European Union responded with a 25% retaliatory tariff on U.S. goods, effective December 1, 2025. In India’s case, the new tariff regime threatens to erase $43.5 billion in export earnings from a bilateral trade relationship worth $133 billion in 2024.

 Strategic Consequences

The “America First” approach may deliver short-term domestic political benefits, but it also risks accelerating the very trends it seeks to counter. By alienating allies and pushing adversaries closer together, the policy inadvertently strengthens alternative trading blocs like BRICS.

 

3. The Rise of BRICS and the Push for De-Dollarization

BRICS now represents nearly one-third of global GDP and half of the world’s population. The bloc’s expanded membership—referred to as BRICS+—has intensified efforts to reduce dependence on the dollar.

 Key Initiatives

- BRICS Pay: A blockchain-based settlement system for local currency transactions, already in use for raw material trade between China, India, and Russia.

- BRICSIZATION Index: A metric showing that 72% of intra-BRICS trade now bypasses the dollar.

- Gold Reserves: In 2024 alone, BRICS nations added over 1,000 metric tons of gold to their reserves as a hedge against dollar volatility.

 Energy Trade

Perhaps the most significant shift is in energy markets. While the petrodollar still dominates, 20% of global oil purchases are now conducted in BRICS currencies. Saudi Arabia, while not a member, has signaled interest in yuan-denominated oil sales—a development that could accelerate the decline of dollar hegemony.

 

4. Resilience Against Sanctions – Iran and North Korea

The persistence of Iran and North Korea as military and political actors despite decades of sanctions highlights the limitations of economic isolation.

- Iran: Maintains the largest ballistic missile arsenal in the Middle East, with significant advancements in hypersonic and precision-guided technologies.

- North Korea: Holds an estimated 50 nuclear warheads and the material to produce many more. Its missile program includes ICBMs capable of striking the U.S. mainland.

Both nations have cultivated alternative trade networks—often informal or illicit—that keep their economies functioning and their military programs advancing.

 

5. China’s Technological Ascendancy

China’s rise in high-tech industries has been rapid and deliberate.

 Industrial Leadership

By 2025, China controls 45% of global solar and electric vehicle markets. Huawei remains the leader in global 5G infrastructure deployment despite U.S. bans, and Chinese firms dominate supply chains for critical minerals.

 Research and Development

China’s R&D spending reached $500 billion in 2024, surpassing the United States in annual patent filings for disruptive technologies. Advances in quantum computing, AI applications, and next-generation communications underscore Beijing’s commitment to long-term technological leadership.

 

6. India’s Strategic Autonomy

India’s foreign policy emphasizes strategic autonomy—balancing relationships with the U.S., Russia, and China.

 Trade Balancing

In 2024, India’s trade with BRICS nations reached $399 billion. Its imports from Russia, mainly oil, totaled $68.7 billion. To mitigate tariff impacts from the U.S., India is expanding trade with the EU and ASEAN while pursuing rupee-based transactions with Russia and the UAE.

 Diplomatic Positioning

India supports the BRICS Pay initiative but remains cautious about adopting a single BRICS currency. This allows it to benefit from de-dollarization trends without overcommitting to any one bloc.

 

7. Leadership Vision – Short vs. Long Term

The contrast between autocratic and democratic leadership timelines is stark. Leaders like Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping can plan decades ahead without electoral disruption. Democracies, while more flexible, often fall into short-term policy cycles.

In the current strategic environment, this difference plays out in infrastructure investment, military modernization, and trade policy—areas where long-term consistency can yield outsized returns.

 

Conclusion – A Multipolar Horizon?

The convergence of Middle Eastern instability, U.S. tariff policies, BRICS expansion, sanctions resilience, and technological competition points toward a more multipolar global order. While the U.S. dollar still accounts for 58% of global reserves, its share is eroding. The real question is not whether the shift will happen, but how fast—and how prepared the United States will be to adapt.

If Washington can reconcile short-term domestic politics with long-term strategic planning, it may yet retain a central role in shaping the next phase of globalization. If not, the momentum toward a multipolar world will accelerate, leaving the U.S. to play catch-up in arenas where it once set the rules.

Here’s a clean, properly formatted reference list for your expanded essay, based on the sources and figures mentioned in your original document:

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References

1. BRICS Trade Volume and GDP Share, 2024–2025. BRICS Economic Data Report.
2. “Iran–Russia Non-Dollar Trade Reaches 96% of Transactions.” Tehran Times, January 2025.
3. “BRICS Gold Reserve Accumulation in 2024.” World Gold Council Report, 2025.
4. “Global Oil Market Share of BRICS Currencies.” Energy Intelligence Review, June 2025.
5. “Israel–Hamas Conflict Casualty and Infrastructure Damage Estimates.” UN OCHA Situation Report, July 2025.
6. “Syria’s Post-Assad Political Landscape.” Middle East Policy Journal, February 2025.
7. “Iran–Israel June 2025 Conflict Overview.” Jane’s Defence Weekly, July 2025.
8. “India’s Oil Import Sources, 2024–2025.” Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas, Government of India.
9. “U.S. Tariff Policy 2025: Economic Impact Assessment.” U.S. International Trade Commission, May 2025.
10. “EU Retaliatory Tariffs Against U.S. Goods, December 2025.” European Commission Trade Directorate.
11. “China’s 2049 Strategic Vision and Technological Investments.” China State Council White Paper, 2025.
12. “China’s Share in Global Solar and EV Markets, 2025.” International Energy Agency (IEA).
13. “Huawei’s Global 5G Deployment Status, 2025.” GSMA Mobile Economy Report.
14. “China–U.S. R&D Spending and Patent Trends.” World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO), 2024.
15. “North Korea’s Nuclear Arsenal Estimates.” Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), 2025.
16. “Iran’s Ballistic Missile Arsenal Overview.” International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), 2025.
17. “BRICS Pay and BRICSIZATION Index: Technical Overview.” New Development Bank Technical Brief, 2025.
18. “Global Foreign Exchange Reserve Currency Shares.” International Monetary Fund (IMF), April 2025.
19. “Petrodollar Usage in Global Oil Trade.” U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), 2025.
20. “India’s BRICS Trade Figures, 2024–2025.” Ministry of Commerce & Industry, Government of India.

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About the Author
Manoj Kumar Goswami is a geopolitical commentator and researcher with a keen interest in global economic realignments, strategic affairs, and the evolving balance of power. His work examines how trade, technology, and diplomacy intersect to shape the emerging multipolar world. Known for blending rigorous data analysis with clear, engaging writing, he aims to make complex global trends accessible to a wide audience.